Resilience in the aftermath of hurricanes: Fluctuations in a Critically Endangered population of West Indian Woodpeckers Melanerpes superciliaris nyeanus over two decades

Cyclonic storms (often called hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones) often cause population declines in vulnerable bird species, and the intensity of these storms appears to be increasing due to climate change. Prior studies have reported short-term impacts of hurricanes on avifauna, but few have examined long-term impacts. Over two decades (1993-2018), we periodically surveyed a subspecies of West Indian Woodpecker Melanerpes superciliaris nyeanus on San Salvador, a small island in The Bahamas, to determine its distribution on the island, habitat use, and effects of hurricanes on abundance and population size. We conducted passive and playback surveys, supplemented with mist-netting. Woodpeckers were found only in the northern part of San Salvador, despite extensive surveys throughout other accessible areas of the island. Birds occupied areas with taller coppice adjacent to sabal palm Sabal palmetto groves, which were used for nesting. After hurricanes with >160 kph winds passed over San Salvador, woodpecker densities declined to 35-40% of pre-hurricane densities, but generally recovered back to pre-hurricane densities within 2-3 years. Based on an estimated density of woodpeckers within a ~1,400 ha occupied area, we calculated a population size of approximately 240 individuals (CI = 68-408). However, the population declined to far lower numbers immediately following hurricanes. Under IUCN Red List criteria, M. s. nyeanus classifies as 'Critically Endangered', and could be especially sensitive to future hurricanes if they occur at a high enough frequency or intensity to prevent the population from rebounding. Given the small size, isolation, and vulnerability of this population, we recommend preservation of the core habitat, continued monitoring, and further research. Our study shows that small, threatened bird populations can be resilient to the effects of hurricanes, but increased intensity of hurricanes, in combination with other threats, may limit this resilience in the future.